To each grape grower or winemaker though, the intensifying El Nino predicted through until at least vintage next year represents our current common gamble. This area of NSW is predicted to experience rainfalls in Winter and Spring 2015 in the 2 to 3 decile range. This means that where we would normally enjoy 100 mm of rain for a given period, the prediction is that we will receive between 20 to 30 mm of moisture. Given the dry and warm trend since the last La Nina episode in 2011, this lack of winter/spring rainfall is not good news.

Our most reliable rainfall at Bloodwood traditionally occurs across winter and spring replenishing the soil profile and irrigation dams so that the vines (and their tenders) can survive the normal dry warmth of summer and autumn months. Low rainfall, higher temperatures and the consequent increase in evaporation puts pressure upon already low dam heights and soil moisture levels. It also keeps our vines very honest. So what can be done to help the vineyard cope with this potentially bleak prospect?

In the words of Lance-Corporal Jones, "don't panic". In this Dad's Army, when we are surrounded by challenges, our philosophy is always to take the next step; and that first stride begins with pruning. We tend to be conservative whenever we prune however when an El Nino approaches, this habit is exaggerated somewhat. Good spacing between spurs and shortened replacement canes when cane pruning are the order of the day. This not only reduces the crop and encourages sufficient shoot length to fully ripen the fruit load, but it means there should be enough vigour in this season's growth to ensure sufficient healthy wood to prune to for vintage 2017. 

(That's the thing with growing grapes; you always need a long perspective.)

It's also a good idea if you have sufficient irrigation to give your vines a deep long drink leading up to budburst if the rains fail. This helps the stirring buds themselves, encourages shoot growth and assists with any "restricted spring growth" problems which could eventuate. Actually, our observations here at Bloodwood suggest that dry late winters, because of the lack of cloud tend to result in much colder starts to each day and this, in combination with moisture stress, exacerbates any potential for inadequate vigour at bud break.

But what do you do if you don't have sufficient irrigation water? Well you need to do the best with what the rain gods provide. The sensible place after all in which to store your moisture is the vineyard soil. It cuts out the electric middle man for a start and ensures that the vine becomes its own irrigation manager. Increasing your carbon levels through mulching and beating your ploughshares into pruning shears helps preserve the natural structure of the soil as well as encouraging the many beneficial microbes your vine needs to prosper. You should also look at weed competition along the vine rows. Deep rooted perennial grasses like paspalum or phalaris should be shown the back side of a shovel as they will out compete in the struggle for moisture while woody weeds like blackberry just can't be allowed to prosper in a vineyard. Shallow rooted annuals like rye grass and clover will dry off without much competitive effect as the weather warms up and usually provide much needed mid summer mulch. However, if weed and grass growth along your vine rows is likely to inhibit air flow across the vineyard floor and cause a pooling of cold, frosty air then you may need to resort to a knock down herbicide as a last resort in the lead up to bud burst.

But that's the thing with an El Nino year. Although your crop levels are likely to be significantly lower than normal, provided you can nurse the crop to maturity without too much moisture or heat stress along the way, in this relatively cool climate your grapes will surely ripen. They may even be of better than average quality. Two sides, if you like of the same coin.